Risk recession? Quiet, is already a reality

May 18, 2023 – 02:43 pm

The word recession is now the subject of most of the interviews and articles on economics.For many,the recession is still a possibility.For me it is now much more.Sure,you could artificially stimulate the economy ( Jackson Hole ?) avoiding the recession "statistics" but the economic structure would not change.In fact,as I have said in the past,it is not only the recession,cyclical phenomenon that is only natural and normal,but as the couple says Reinhart-Rogoff, author del'ormai famous " This time is different ", which not only supports the hypothesis recession,but the risk reduction / depression.

A scenario that so it has a much longer timeframe for absorption and lead to a flattening down of the economic system,going to limarne all the excesses of many years of fantasy finance.For many there is also the talk of turning Japanese, with low rates and growth laughable.In short,an economic medium to long epriodo very very negative.Why, because the structure of the economy is completely game. Skipped. Marcia. Unrecoverable.

Ratio Metals: Industrial vs. Precious

Apologizing for the digression,I wanted to see yet another signal that the market provides us with a view not only of its economic slowdown but also of recession.
You all know the CRB Index of raw materials.His twin brother is the S & P GSCI,which can then be split into two categories:

a) Standard & Poor's GSCI Industrial Metals Index
b) S & P GSCI Precious Metals Index

The composition of the two indices would say that is clear.
Now let's try to compare the two indexes.Why?Because in this way you will understand if the market,passing right by the asset class for anticipatory antoniomasia,raw materials (intermarket dixit),has the basics to be able to end up in a recession.
And know,my dear readers,that the basics are there,indeed,according to this ratio,we are already in recession.

In fact,the ratio between the two indexes is at historic lows.Practically the levels of the previous recession,that of 2009 (March), the worst since World War II, which then started the mega stimulus of QE and the subsequent stock market rally.
That's why in Jackson Hole are enclosed analysts' expectations .It is hoped that Bernanke & Co. pull out of the hat not just a bunny,but the lamp of Aladdin. Because here it takes a real miracle.And the chemistry and financial engineering may no longer be enough.
And this graph (not very common but very effective) says a lot.

Source: intermarketandmore.finanza.com

Stay away from individual stocks for now.

2006-01-10 12:15:49 by truth_seeker

You simply don't have the knowledge. It's a lot easier to learn hard lessons about the market when you're playing with 5,000 instead of 1,000,000. I'll tell you this much:
With 1,000,000, you could do much worse than buy the maximum allowed ibonds. 30,000 electronic and 30,000 from the bank will only equal 6% of your portfolio, and is certainly reasonable.
Investing 1-5% in precious metals such as silver or gold may also prove to be quite prudent. You can invest in CEF or GLD if you don't want the physical metal.
For muni bonds, you're probably better off with a fund

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